Authors: Grace Fulop, Margaret Hanson, and Ariana Shirvani (in alphabetical order)
Web Design: Alex Manzi
April 22, 2025
To better understand the NYC housing market – where sales are most frequently occurring within the City, what the median price point is, and the extent of speculative activity within different neighborhoods, the Center for NYC Neighborhoods is launching a bi-annual reporting series that will highlight key aspects of NYC’s homeownership market twice a year. Inspiration for this blog series is due in large part to the Gothamist’s eviction tracker, which launched in August of 2023 and helped illustrate the extent of the issue across NYC after the moratorium ended.
By honing in on key homeownership indicators (home sales, cash buys, home flips, and foreclosure filings), we aim to elevate the political, economic, and social factors that are driving the City’s homeownership market.
Home sales.
Cash buys.
Flips.
Foreclosure filings.
Home Sales. The median home sale price (MSP) for 1-4 units and condos in NYC during the period was $950,000, or $50,000 dollars away from the NYC Mansion Tax threshold, which tacks an additional 1 to 3.9 percent of the purchase price onto a sale when it is greater than or equal to a million dollars.
At the borough level, the MSPs in Manhattan and Brooklyn have already crossed the million dollar mark ($1,680,056 and $1,073,490, respectively). Queens trails not far behind with a MSP of $832,002, while the Bronx is a quarter of a million dollars away, with a MSP of $707,000. These high MSPs are in spite of inflation (the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers for the New York – Newark – Jersey City area was reportedly up 4.2% for the 12-month period ending in February 2025), and in addition to historically high interest rates (the year ended, in NYC, with a 6.77 percent mortgage rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage).
The council district with the highest number of sales (583) during the period, Council District 20, is home to Flushing. The surge in sales here was likely driven by a hot condo market, with sales in this area (and for this category of home) on par with the condo market in Long Island City (LIC). (For what it’s worth, LIC was identified as the third neighborhood to watch for by StreetEasy in January 2025.) In actuality, Queens led the charge in the sales of 1-4 units and condos across nearly every geography analyzed: at the census-tract level, there were 334 sales (across three census tracts) during the period, compared to 113 in one Manhattan census tract and 57 in another tract in Brooklyn; at the council-district level, there were 1,113 sales in Queens during the period (across two council districts), compared to 863 sales in Manhattan (across two council districts), and 458 in one council district in Brooklyn. And, finally, at the borough level, there were 4,707 sales in Queens compared to 4,139 in Brooklyn, 2,592 in Manhattan, and 1,003 in the Bronx. Overall, this means Queens made up 38% of the total sales for the period.
Finally, some districts show significant disparities between their median and maximum sales prices, which is indicative of a variable housing market, or a mix of affordable listings and extremely expensive homes.
Sales of 1-4 Units & Condos
Cash Buys. The data reveal a major reversal of one of the Center’s chief findings in a 2020 report on cash-buying in NYC. Cash buyers outbid mortgage borrowers on 1-4 units and condos during the period across nearly every geography analyzed (e.g., census tract, council districts, boroughs, and citywide), rather than paying less than buyers with mortgages. This means cash buys are no longer enjoying the effective discount they once did compared to mortgage buys. Furthermore, approximately 81 percent of home sales for 1-4 units and condos in the four boroughs were made by cash buyers. This is an extraordinary hastening of the trend from when the Center originally reported on it in 2020. (When the Center first reported the figure, cash sales made up 40 percent of the home-purchase market in the Bronx, Brooklyn, Manhattan, and Queens.) This dramatic upsurge could be tied to the high interest-rate environment, with buyers avoiding borrowing due to elevated interest rates. At the same time, this also means homeownership in NYC is becoming increasingly more stratified, rather a luxury for those who can borrow (perhaps even from family and friends) and afford to buy in the current, high-cost market.
Cash Buys of 1-4 Units & Condos
Flips. About six percent of the sales of 1-4 units and condos during the period were flipped homes. Luckily, flip sales do not appear to be inflating the MSP of 1-4 units and condos in the four boroughs at this time. (The MSP of this category of home purchase is $860,000, compared to the MSP of non-flipped homes, $950,000.)
At the borough level, the Bronx leads in terms of home flips, with a flip rate of 8.44 percent. Queens reported the second highest flip rate at 8.41 percent. These higher flip rates are likely tied to competitive housing markets in the Bronx and Queens. Last year, the MSP for a single-family home in the Bronx was reportedly up 5.5 percent, which experts attribute to a low inventory of homes coupled with high demand. Meanwhile, Queens boasted three of the 5 hottest neighborhoods to watch for in 2025 according to Streeteasy.
Flips of 1-4 Units & Condos
Foreclosure Filings. The data indicate that homeowner distress on this front is concentrated in different parts of the city. The primary evidence of this is nearly a twenty-point difference between the six council districts that received the highest number of foreclosure filings during the period (Council Districts 27, 28, 31, 46, and 42) and the district that received the seventh highest number of foreclosure filings (Council District 32).
Homeowners in Brooklyn and Queens received nearly 4-times as many foreclosure filings as those located in Manhattan, Staten Island, and the Bronx combined. While Brooklyn and Queens have the highest number of homeowners in the City (297,305 and 385,206, respectively, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey), this distress feels outsized.
Incidentally, one census tract in Manhattan (Census Tract 74), the borough which received the least number of foreclosure filings during the period (39 out of the 1,883 that were sent citywide), received the second highest number of foreclosure filings of any census tract in the City.
Foreclosure Filings (no distinction by unit type)
Newly imposed tariffs by the U.S. and reciprocal tariffs are likely to have a significant impact on NYC’s housing market in the coming period, as well as inflation and the high-cost of goods. Further, if mortgage rates continue to impede prospective borrowers by holding fast at their current level, or even worse, by rising, spring could see a sluggish housing market.
A twenty-five percent tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods coming into the United States, which took effect on April 2, 2025 (see here for live updates), will doubtless drive up the price of softwood lumber products and gypsum. Canadian softwood lumber and Mexican gypsum, which is used for drywall, are essential materials for home building. In the case of Canadian softwood lumber, the 25 percent tariff will be in addition to the 14.5 percent duty rate that is already in place. Making matters worse, Canada leads the world in the production and export of softwood lumber: in 2023, for example, the U.S. imported 28.1 million cubic meters of it from Canada, primarily for residential and commercial construction. Meanwhile, in 2023, the U.S. imported 2.1 billion kilograms of gypsum (anhydrite) from Mexico, totaling $55.8 million. These tariffs mean constructing a new home, already an expensive endeavor, will become even more expensive in the coming days. In fact, some experts are predicting that an additional $9,000 will be added onto the cost of construction as a result. Builders/developers will inevitably pass this increased expense onto home purchasers.
There is also a strong likelihood that the newly imposed tariffs will raise the prices of consumer goods, and do so to such an extent that the economy slows down. Unfortunately, a weakened economy does not bode well for interest rates, which has economists concerned that the Federal Reserve could raise them in the near future. High interest rates lead to steep borrowing costs and, therefore, higher monthly mortgage payments for borrowers, which could put off prospective purchasers from home buying, as is already the case.
Furthermore, while inflation “eased” a bit in February to 2.8 percent year over year, according to the Consumer Price Index, the rate remains above 3 percent currently. The category most responsible for driving the elevated figure is, incidentally, housing, which does not portend to be getting cheaper anytime soon (see here also).
Another contributing factor to the strain on consumers’ pocketbooks are changes in food prices. Despite the fact that inflation of food costs has not risen since last year, or has “come in flat,” the movement within the food category (e.g., the high price of eggs shifting over to the cost of beef), or between-group fluctuation, is preventing consumers from feeling relief as they navigate making tradeoffs in the grocery aisle. Consumers have also already begun to adjust their discretionary spending habits, investing instead in vehicles, appliances, and furniture (all of which can be affected by tariffs), and spending less on traveling and going out to eat, in addition to saving more. All of these are indicators that consumers are anticipating an economic downturn, which can actually work to trigger one.
In the coming days, the number of foreclosure filings could also spike as a recessionary period is increasingly being forecasted. We know from previous research (p. 11) that LMI homebuyers are more vulnerable to financial shocks, like recessions, and are 50 percent more likely to exit homeownership after five years compared to higher-income homeowners. Bear in mind, in New York State it takes 6-8 months for a foreclosure lawsuit to go from lis pendens, summons and complaint to auction, but can take as long as 1-3 years if a borrower files an answer and appears at the mandatory settlement conference.
Otherwise, mortgage rates have held strong since peaking at 7.08 percent in October 2022, and today hover around the 6.5 to 7 percent mark. (This is despite the Federal Reserve slowing cutting interest rates in December 2024 by 0.25 percentage points, in November 2024 by 0.25 percentage points, and in September 2024 by 0.50 percentage points.) As a result, experts predict mortgage rates will likely remain at current levels all the way into 2026, or possibly creep higher. As was previously mentioned, elevated mortgage rates have already been keeping prospective buyers at bay.
One bit of promising news is that in early January 2025, Governor Hochul introduced a proposal in her State of the State for the introduction of legislation that would disincentivize institutional investors from purchasing single- and two-family homes in New York State. The proposed legislation would do so by preventing institutional investors from bidding on properties in the first 75 days that they are on the market, and by eliminating the ability of said investors to utilize interest deductions, depreciation deductions, and other tax loopholes that decrease the expense associated with owning such properties on an investor’s ledger.
As goods (including housing) get more expensive, and as the market adjusts to newly imposed tariffs, it will be interesting to see how the aforementioned political, economic, and social factors come to bear on the NYC housing market. We look forward to helping break down what it all means, and will see you again late July to mid August.
Dial 311 and ask for the Center for NYC Neighborhoods
Or call us directly at 646-786-0888
Email: info@cnycn.org
Press: press@cnycn.org
